While global political players are deciding what to do with Russia, Ukraine is beginning to build its own regional security system.
On August 8, the Ukrainian city of Chernivtsi hosted a meeting at the level of Ministers of Foreign Affairs of Ukraine, Romania, and Moldova. Ministers of Foreign Affairs of Lithuania and Poland also took part in the event remotely. This international forum was officially named the Odesa Triangle, in honor of the city where the meeting was held in 2022.
In the course of discussing security issues, Ukraine, Romania, and Moldova agreed to create a regional cyber alliance to counter current challenges and threats, primarily from the Russian Federation. The parties also decided to appoint regional coordinators who will be responsible for interaction and implementation of the agreements.
While the Ukrainian-Romanian-Moldovan forum was taking place, Russian Shahids continued to bomb Ukraine and attacked the oil depot of the Azerbaijani company SOCAR in Odesa region.
On the night of August 8, the Russians also attacked the Orlivka gas distribution station, which is located on the border with Romania and is an important element of the Trans-Balkan corridor through which Azerbaijani gas is planned to be supplied to Ukraine.
What do the Russians want to achieve with their constant attacks on civilian infrastructure?
Most likely, they have already realized that they cannot win the war against Ukraine, and therefore, in a fit of anger, they are trying to harm their other neighbors as well.
Logic dictates that under such circumstances, all those who border on Russia should unite and counteract Russia’s aggressive foreign policy together. And here, the Odesa Triangle could be the beginning of a new regional defense bloc of states, which would eventually be joined by other interested parties. Although, even if only Ukraine, Romania, and Moldova were members of such a defense alliance, it would already be a significant deterrent to Russia. If we count the population of these three countries, it is about 65 million in total. This is almost half of the population of the Russian Federation. But there is one important detail here: Ukrainians, Romanians, and Moldovans live compactly on a European territory of approximately 875,000 square kilometers, while 143 million Russians are scattered over 17 million square kilometers. (The Russian Federation covers more than one-eighth of the landmass of the Earth in Europe and Asia and stretches across 11 time zones.)
This means that to organize a systemic armed attack on the future defense alliance of Ukraine, Romania and Moldova, if it is created, the Russians would physically lack human resources, as it is known that much less force is needed to organize defense than to attack. In addition, under such circumstances, the territory of the Russian Federation itself would be exposed and practically defenseless. Of course, under such circumstances, the political leadership of the Russian Federation would no longer care about external aggression, as the question of the security of the Russian Federation itself could arise.
And what would happen if Russia got involved in a military conflict with Azerbaijan, which it is always trying to provoke for some reason?
One may be 100 percent certain that Türkiye, which has 90 million people and the second most powerful army in NATO after the United States, would certainly stand up for Azerbaijan. And what can Russia oppose to all this, which, despite its terrible rhetoric and all its formidable appearance, has not been able to defeat Ukraine for many years of war?
Its generals are very well aware of the current balance of military and political forces in the world and the problems of the Russian army, but Russian politicians and the people, drugged by propaganda, are still haunted by imperial ambitions. At the same time, it is becoming increasingly clear that Russia can no longer wage a protracted war, as it is also running out of resources. Ultimately, Putin’s adventure with the invasion of Ukraine will end in a deep political crisis for Russia with poorly predictable consequences, as has happened more than once in Russia’s history. Therefore, the most acceptable and safe way out of the current situation would be to create a new defense alliance of states at the regional level, which could become a guarantor of protection against Russia’s aggressive foreign policy and a stabilizing factor in case of the collapse of its statehood and uncontrolled disintegration. And the “Odesa Triangle”, consisting of Ukraine, Romania and Moldova, could be the first step towards the creation of a new regional defense alliance of states, which could be expanded and developed in the future in order to establish long-term peace and stability in the entire Baltic-Black Sea-Caspian region.
Oleh Bereziuk,
Institute of Global Politics
(Image generated by neural network)
